The Fundamentals of Volumetric Forecasting
New product sales forecasting evolved rapidly in the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) or Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industries after World War II. New products were initially evaluated via store tests, and later by introducing the new product into several cities (test markets) and tracking actual sales for a year or two. Based on sales results in the test markets, national sales estimates were derived via extrapolation. Test markets evolved over the years into Laboratory Test Markets (LTMs) or Simulated Test Markets (STMs). This Webinar will focus on basic concepts of new product volumetric forecasting for CPG or FMCG categories, but some of the techniques can be applied to forecasting sales of new durable goods or new services. Volumetric forecasting techniques can also be applied to calculating the sales volume changes that might result from changes in marketing inputs. The roles of choice modeling and agent-based simulation will be discussed, too. The presentation will take about 30 minutes, followed by questions.
Presenter
Jerry W. Thomas
Chief Executive Officer
Jerry is deeply involved in the firm’s development of new research methods and techniques and in the design of new software systems. He plays a key role in the development of Decision Analyst’s proprietary research services and related mathematical models.
Jerry describes himself as a student of marketing strategy, new product development, mathematical modeling, business survival, and economic growth. In his spare time, he likes to work on his farm in East Texas where he grows grapes, apples, pears, pecans, plums, and peaches; a forest of native trees, grasses, and insects; and wild plants of many types.
He graduated from the University of Texas at Arlington, earned his MBA at the University of Texas at Austin, and studied graduate economics at SMU.
