Forecasts will need to reset to match reality once things settle. That information is critical in making strategic decisions. Looking at the past may not lead us on the right path anymore.
Choice modeling makes it possible to simulate the decision-making process so a new product's sales revenue can be predicted. Choice modeling helps marketers understand the many variables that underlie that forecast.
Marketing Research Article: A well-designed, new product concept testing system, overseen by experienced and knowledgeable researchers, can vastly improve a company's ability to develop successful new products or services.
To reduce the risks of new products, forecasting of year-one sales has become an established practice. This article discusses the methods used to derive year-1 sales forecasts for new consumer packaged goods.