Will A Scarcity Marketing Strategy Drive Strong Results?

Scarcity can drive value perceptions.

Scarcity, or inadequate availability, can sometimes create an increased sense of value.

Anyone remember trying to buy toilet paper in April 2020? My household bought a case from a commercial supplier. We had connections and paid a pretty penny for it, but we were stocked and had enough to share. As far as we know, the great toilet paper shortage of 2020 was not planned, but it definitely drove up the value of an otherwise humdrum commodity.

As I write this in January 2025, I still have a box of Little Debbie Christmas Tree Cakes waiting to be devoured. You see, there was a shortage of these during the 2023 holiday season. My family enjoys them, and I looked everywhere last season. The idea that I couldn’t find them kept me looking in every store I visited throughout the season, but I never had any luck. And here’s the crazy thing – I thought about them throughout 2024 and started looking for them before Thanksgiving. At first, I didn’t find any and assumed they would be a hot item again, so the hunt was on. Then I found some! Of course, I had to buy more than one box and tell the family I had secured the nostalgic treats. The first response came from my youngest daughter, who said, “Yeah, I’ve seen them everywhere this year.” And here I thought I had scored a big win. Did Little Debbie plan this? I guess I’ll never know!

Scarcity can be a very strategic move.

These two stories aside, planned scarcity can be a strategic decision and can be successfully executed, especially for high-demand brands. Here are some examples:

Cookies. Girl Scout Cookies are available during a limited timeframe each year. We know to expect them in January, and we might think the Girl Scouts are out to destroy our New Year’s resolutions. However, the timing provides a strategic production advantage for their manufacturer partners. People love them and, due to the limited availability, look forward to them—even if they resent the timing. They’re hard to pass up! So when other cookie brands are not selling as much (those darn NY resolutions), Girl Scout Cookies reap the rewards.
Restaurant limited-time offers (LTOs). The McDonald’s McRib sandwich seems to make an appearance in the U.S. each fall. Because it’s only available on the menu during certain months, there’s excitement among fans of the sandwich. The company promotes it heavily and strong sales follow. This strategic seasonal promotion can even be used to drive sales of other menu items, as friends and families add visits for the McRib lover in their group.
Cosmetics. MAC Cosmetics produces, among other things, limited-edition holiday sets. This past season’s Golden Girl Mini Lustreglass Lipstick was a set of multiple lipstick shades plus two lip plumpers, all offered in a high-end package. The brand commanded a relatively high price point and the nature of this holiday-only offer created a fair amount of social media buzz.
Automotive. The Ford F-series offers the most popular pickup trucks in the U.S. Many models and trim packages are available, including the F-150 King Ranch edition. This limited-edition trim package includes increased horsepower, a special paint job, prominent use of the King Ranch emblem, and a luxurious interior. This exclusive package commands a significantly higher price than other models and is a strong seller for Ford.

Does a scarcity strategy always work?

I dare say there’s no strategy that always works. Especially in this case, the product or brand must have strong brand equity, be distinctive, and be in demand for the strategy to be successful. Otherwise, competitive products will be acceptable substitutes, and scarcity could erode market share and possibly be the end of any brand loyalty that existed.

Scarcity as a strategy should be considered carefully.

A brand considering some form of strategic scarcity should research its plans among potential buyers to help ensure success.

The brand needs to be strong enough to generate interest.
The product must be somehow exciting, buzzworthy, or in high demand.
The price can often be premium but there will be a limit.
Distribution/Availability must, by nature, be carefully controlled.

These elements can be researched in advance through a variety of steps like qualitative exploration and/or quantitative choice optimization research.

Here’s a final thought on a scarcity strategy.

Once the offer is optimized, an adequate budget should be allocated to advertise or promote the offer. Remember, it will be scarce, so awareness and interest must be built among the target audience. Without this foundation, all the other work could be for naught.

Author

Felicia Rogers

Corporate Executive Vice President

Felicia Rogers is a dynamic insights consultant who leverages decades of business and consumer research experience. She is passionate about brand strategy and improving brand health, new product development, and driving positive customer experiences. During her career, she has consulted with companies across an array of categories to tackle many important strategic issues.

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