The U.S. Economic Index Declines for Second Straight Month for April 2019

The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stands at 115 for April 2019, a 1-point decline over the past year from April 2018. The Index is down 2 points from last month. The overall long-term trend of the Economic Index over the past 2 years is relatively flat, an indication of slowing economic growth as 2019 unfolds. The Economic Index tends to lead overall U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.

“The overall pattern of the U.S. Economic Index over the past 24 months is suggesting a topping out of the current economic expansion. U.S. GDP growth in 2018 will come in close to 3%, once all the revisions are completed, but GDP growth in 2019 is likely to come in closer to 2%. Decisions coming out of Washington, D.C., are disrupting and dampening U.S. economic activity. Tariffs, trade disputes, immigration crackdowns, hostility toward other countries, and governmental chaos tend to increase uncertainty for consumers and businesses, encouraging both groups to go slowly and avoid major financial commitments. Major corporations are doing their part to create economic weakness by not investing sufficiently in new products, research and development, or new plant and equipment--as they squander the tax cut by buying back their own stocks,” said Jerry W. Thomas, CEO/President of Decision Analyst. “Weakness in Europe and China are also dark shadows hanging over the U.S. economy.”

Census Divisions

The Mountain Census Division increased 7 points in the past 12 months, followed closely by the Pacific Census Division with an increase of 5 points. Meanwhile, the East South Central Census Division declined 3 points in the past 12 months and the Middle Atlantic Census Division declined 2 points. The West North Central Census Division remains unchanged over the past 12 months.

 

Global Index

The following chart compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for other countries. In South America, Colombia increased the most, gaining 5 points in the past 12 months; meanwhile, Argentina declined 14 points, and Chile declined 8 points. In Europe, both Italy and Spain increased by 2 points each in the past 12 months, but the Russian Federation decreased 7 points, and France decreased 5 points. The major countries tracked by Decision Analyst are shown below.

   

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.

Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 40 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

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