U.S. Economy Showing Signs of Growth, According To Decision Analyst’s Economic Index

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index stood at 114 in May 2017, a 3-point increase from its April 2017 level of 111. This increase reverses a four-month decline in the Index. The overall pattern of the Economic Index over the past 12 months is clearly upward, reaffirming that the U.S. economy is likely to expand throughout 2017, assuming events in Washington, D.C., do not deflect the U.S. economy from its upward momentum. The Economic Index tends to lead U.S. economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Below is the past-10-year history of the U.S. Economic Index.

“The U.S. Economic Index is up 4 points over the past 12 months, an indication of moderate economic expansion and an indicator of continued GDP growth throughout 2017,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The greatest risks to the overall U.S. economy during the next 12 months are a stock market crash (it's overpriced), uncertainty related to a new administration in Washington, the possibility of trade wars or trade disruptions, and the possibility of U.S. political or budget crises. The positive forces for improvements in the U.S. economy in coming months are growth in the world economy, continuing low energy costs, relatively benign inflation, and a likely increase in spending on capital investments by major U.S. corporations.”

Census Divisions

The Economic Indices for the U.S. Census Divisions have increased or stayed the same in the past 12 months. The West South Central and the Pacific Divisions are tied for the highest score of all the Census Divisions, with an Index score of 115 for May 2017. The West South Central Census Division had the largest increase over the past 12 months, increasing 9 points. The New England Division had the lowest Index score, 108 for May 2017.

 

Global Index

The following chart compares Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index to its Economic Indices for other countries. Globally, South America and Europe are moving in a positive direction. Argentina increased 14 points in the past 12 months, while Brazil increased 11 points. In Europe, the Russian Federation and France each increased 11 points, while Italy increased 6 points. The United Kingdom has the same score for May 2016 as it did for May 2016.

 

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The scientific survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.

Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 35 years, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

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