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Economic Indices
For Immediate Release November 4, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
U.S. Economy Showing Signs of Life—Decision
Analyst’s
October Economic Index Points to Possible Growth
Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index for October
2009 increased dramatically, jumping from 92 in September to 96 in October.
Since this Index tends to foreshadow the U.S. economy by nine to 12 months,
this uptick in the Economic Index suggests that the economy will grow in the
last quarter of 2009 and the first half of 2010. The Index successfully predicted
the bottoming of the U.S. economy evident in the second quarter of 2009. Here’s
the Economic Index for the past three years:
The New England, West North Central and West South Central Division appear
to be doing the better that the rest of the country. The Pacific, Mountain,
East South Central, and South Atlantic Divisions continue to struggle, compared
to other sections of the U.S. (See regional map below.)
| Three-Year History By Census
Division |
The New England, Middle Atlantic and East North Central census divisions are
trending upwards, while the West North Central, West South Central and the East
South Central divisions have seen slight declines recently or are stagnant.
The East North Central Division (automotive region) has made recent improvements,
presumably due to the U.S. government’s “Cash for Clunkers”
program.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Not all International Indices
are made available to the public due to low base sizes.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 31-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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